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Dave Dempsey

Radio FM4

Dave Dempsey

Dave digs the Dirt, webtips, IT-memes and other online geekery. Also as Podcast.

8. 11. 2016 - 21:33

US Election Blog 2016

tiny hands, big money, and the lowest popularity ratings ever

Die US-Wahl auf Radio FM4

So. Here we are. The final night of the weirdest campaign I have ever had the (dis)pleasure of experiencing. I have absolutely no idea how this evening is going to end, but I do know that whatever the results, quite a few people are going to be very, very unhappy.

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21:00

Right now I am trying to get my command center up and running. Something which is turning out to be much more difficult than I expected. In a campaign that has seen so much online activity, it is just a little surprising that it is so difficult to find any reliable online feeds of the election coverage. Even worse?

Articles that talk about the coverage but completely fail to provide any links to those feeds.

Twitter has supposedly combined forces with Buzzfeed to provide some streaming coverage, but I am still sorting through trash articles to try to find a functional link.

In the meantime feel free to try to get a pulse of that nation by following the twitter hashtag #electionday

So what's going to happen?

If only I knew. I don't think I have ever been asked this question this often with this much concern. The polls have been weird, and it appears as though a lot of potentially volatile voters have been activated on both side of the aisle.

I know that my personal social networking feeds have seen a heck of a lot of early voting activity. That might be because it has actually been discussed much more in the lead up to this election than in the past.

Trumps own campaign might actually be responsible for it. his continued insistence that the elections are rigged, combined with his disparaging comments toward Hispanics might have actually motivated many more people in that voting block to get out ahead of time.

This Time, There Really Is a Hispanic Voter Surge

Of course, as with everything, it depends on who you ask. I have also seen more than a few reports that Republicans have been benefiting from early voter turnout, especially in states like Colorado, Florida, and Arizona.

No seriously, what's going to happen?

Well, according to one article on USA Today, the best indicator might be the results coming in from Guam. Guam is a U.S. territory, the residents are U.S. citizens, but they have no representation in the electoral college. But they still get to vote. Their votes just don't count.

Don't understand that? Neither do I, but for this little snippet of information it is basically irrelevant. Because, despite the fact that their votes don't count, the little island that could (if it was allowed to) has been a pretty good indicator of who will end up winning the national election.

2012 Election Comparative Analysis Report,

In other words, they have been calling it since 1980.

But let's be honest here. That isn't anywhere near as much fun as finding out what astrologers, bookies, palm readers and wall street have to say.

The bookies seem to be pretty confident that Clinton is going to grab the brass ring. I have frequently read comments that these people actually have money on the line and are much more likely to be accurate in their actual predictions than pollsters and mainstream media. That said, betting on elections is not legal in the states (except for some very strict restrictions) so most of the book makers and bettors are not U.S. based.

And they got Brexit pretty wrong.

Betting sites see record wagering on US presidential election

01:41

Checking out the astrologists, it seems like I can just copy and paste from my 2012 election block

It would seem Astrologists aren't in complete agreement on this years outcome. About twice as many star readers are predicting an Obama win as those who can see a President Romney.

Switch out Hillary for Obama and Romney for Trump and you know all that you need to know.

01:46

I did manage to find a true gem in a Guardian article about the subject.

“Whoever wins, no one will be entirely happy with what they get.”

Talk about going out on a limb there...

01:58

Still waiting for some useful numbers from the first election closings. right now my head is spinning. Between trying to follow a live ticker from the #electionday tag and listening to major media outlets trying to find useful numbers in partial returns I think it's time to go see what's up on the meme front.

in the memetime feel free to follow the numbers on a oddly open New York Times article that is tracking data in real time.

Live Presidential Forecast

02:15

I got distracted before I could get too deep into the memes, because the Florida race is turning into a nail-biter. Watching three different sources and a few different online counters and every single one seems to be using a different methodology and they all have different numbers.

Right now all of them are focusing on the importance of Florida and Ohio.

Now the big question. To 4chan or not to 4chan...

02:40

Ok, I guess I knew the answer to that one well ahead of time. One thing that is pretty clear: right now, no one likes anyone. I mean, even Canadians are becoming rude.

some Canadian on 9gag

9gag.com is still somewhat civil, I guess, but I really can't post most of what I am finding.

02:57

It is probably pretty hard for people in a lot of countries to imagine what it can be like to vote in the U.S. this election is a normal working day. That means people have to work around things like work-schedules, daycare or babysitters. And it also means that choosing the right time to hit the polls can make a difference for a quick in and out, or hours of waiting in line to cast your ballot.

The cynic in me would imagine it to be a perfect opportunity for someone to grab their bootstraps and start making cash on an uncomfortable situation. But the U.S. is a lot more complex than that, and the reality just a little bit different.

polls.pizza takes donations for deliveries to hungry voters. People can donate to the site, report the existence of long lines and track the delivery rate. Right now they have already raised over $40.000 and delivered well over 2000 pizzas.

03:27

Although most of the media attention has been focused on the presidential election, there are actually many things being voted on right now. Like the legalization of marijuana. In some states people are asked to decide about allowing the medical use of it, and in others they are voting on allowing recreational use.

Although Florida is still tight right now on the presidency, Republican Senator (and ex-presidential hopeful) Marco Rubio has won re-election in his senate race and the state has also come out for allowing the use of medical marijuana.

In other words, Republican voters are supporting something that used to be one of the major points in what was frequently referred to as the culture war.

It's Official, A Majority of States Have Legalized Marijuana

04:32

Just got done restarting my computer after trying to upload this graphic from 20 minutes ago.

New York Times

It is a detail from their live statistics page showing the difference between the number of popular votes cast and the resulting electoral college votes awarded. What it means is that Hillary Clinton currently has the raw numbers, but Donald Trump the functional votes.

The numbers have since changed but the general trend is still there. Oddly enough this, too, is something that can be bet upon, and it looks like a few people might be making a hefty sum.

04:51

Alexandra Augustin about to be reporting live from a Trump election party location in California.

04:57

The number of people thinking about where they left their passports seems to be increasing.

And the market seems to be reacting

www.marketwatch.com has more details including the fact that the Mexican Peso has also taken a hit.

Gold on the other hand is up.

05:09

Clinton just made a jump in electoral college votes, CNN is claiming Clinton with 190 and Trump with 186. the BBC on the other hand has slightly different numbers: clinton 197, Trump 187.

I, meanwhile, have totally lost the plot and need to hunt some coffee.

05:07

well, this got a chuckle out of me at least.

05:34

I think it was my mother who always told me, "if you can't say something nice about someone, it's better to say nothing at all"

05:42

Yes, Canada's immigration website really is down.

05:55

Face of New York

And in the meantime, Fox News has apparently called Trump the winner

And this is the face of someone who just got a major upgrade in his allowance

06:07

This might be one time some people are happy politicians make a lot of election promises they never intend to keep

06:22
Watching pollsters and pundits waving their arms about is pretty entertaining right now. And there are a few good jokes floating around my twitter feed.

06:38

Just waiting now. BBC still trying to explain how it might end up a tie, the Trump camp is pretty certain they have it in the bag, and it is really hard to find trump memes that aren't either mean to him, or mean to other people.

Anyone who hasn't found a stream that they like should really consider the BBC.

And now I want donuts. Although I would also accept a cold slice of pizza if anyone had some to spare...

06:52

Alexandra Augustin is still at the Trump party, and has given us what has to be one of the best photos from a Trump party I have seen so far.

Alexandra Augustin

08:02

Still waiting but at least giggling a little bit.

08:05

John Podesta just addressed Hillary supporters. It looks like they are going to wait this thing out. The New York Times have basically called it for Donald Trump, he is just two electoral votes short of what he needs to win.

On CNN pundits are going after each other over Hilary Clinton's refusal to concede. The division is huge, and it is not going to stop any time soon. Both sides are saying the other has to be big enough to try to begin the healing. And they are both accusing the other of being a sore loser/bad winner.

08:20

I am throwing in the towel. It looks like there is still going to be some waiting done. There are still several states that need to finish counting and I am just beat. I hope to wake up with a clear result in the afternoon, but a part of me wouldn't be too surprised to find out that some things still aren't clear.

Whatever the case, it looks like you will find out about it before I do.