Erstellt am: 22. 6. 2016 - 18:28 Uhr

Boilers, bluster, and the Brexit

How a few casual conversations revealed some unsettling truths about the Brexit debate

So, it is here are last - and we are about to find out whether my lands-folk think it is better to be, or not to be, in the EU. Perhaps, more accurately, to find out who has been shouting loudest in the months of acrimonious mud-slinging and manipulation that have been passed off as "EU Referendum Campaigning".

AFP PHOTO / Daniel Leal-Olivas

Nigel Farage of the Leave campaign received widespread condemnation for his "Breaking Point" poster, which one of his fellow Leave campaigners called "hateful and xenophobic"

The total chaos of the whole process was driven home to me in a conversation with my mum. While she may be 90 years old, she's sharp as a knife, and reads a good spread of newspapers.

It all started with her heating boiler. It's an older model (well, pretty ancient, actually) and she's been considering having it replaced. The replacement will be expensive, and it will have to be repositioned to meet European standards. Therefore, she told me, she wants to vote "leave".

I explained patiently that the point of EU standards is to promote free trade - and make sure that German, French, Italian or any other EU boilers will be safe. I went on to say that in the events of a "Leave", the EU standard for boilers would be replaced by a British standard, which would have to be at least as good as the EU one to ensure Britain can still sell boilers to Europe - so they're unlikely to get cheaper.

"Well, in that case" she says, "why can't we just stay as we are?"

"You can," I said "vote Remain".

"Oh no - that would mean we have to join the Euro, and our army would be taken over by a European army."

"No, Mum - REMAIN means just that - STAY AS YOU ARE, NO CHANGE. The Euro and armies are not part of the question."

"Well, why isn't anyone saying that here?"

Leaving the EU will not mean the UK can forget about European Standards for manufacturing

The slanted view of a nonagenarian?

It's easy to dismiss this as the slanted view of a nonagenarian, but I've heard similar comments from friends who are half her age, widely read, and politically and socially engaged. For people in Britain, the campaigning has been so loud, so passionate, often so ugly, and always so confusing, that very few are in a position to make an informed choice.

To me, as a Brit living in Austria, it's a no-brainer. Remain is, in my personal opinion, the only way to go. The EU certainly has its problems, but if you're in a slightly leaky boat with 27 other people, you grab a bucket and help bail. You don't jump out and hope you can swim to land.

I don't want to get into the political and economic arguments. Far better qualified people than me have been expounding on those for months, but a few of my friends have raised interesting points.

One, in particular, took issue with my wording when I told him about the "boiler-o-meter" of opinion in sunny Dorset. He said "remain" should not be equated to "no change", and he's absolutely right.

"Remain" does not mean "no change"

Even if there is a "remain" vote, there will still be "change" in one way or another. Firstly, the whole referendum business has sent shock waves around the EU that will continue to reverberate and will, even if only in a small way, change the EU discourse. Secondly, the Brexit campaign has been so vitriolic, tainted with all the very worst aspects of Britain's colonial past, that it has divided the country. I don't mean in a "Van der Bellen v. Hofer", "the whole country divides into shades of right and left" sort of way, but in a deep and disturbing way in which the majority of people are at the extremes. A rift like that does not heal overnight, and I think we will see some politicians disappearing into the chasm before the dust settles.

AFP PHOTO / LEON NEAL

The Brexit issue has seen David Cameron's approval ratings plummet, and it could cost him his job, whichever way the vote goes.

Across the Channel, the EU itself is a constantly evolving and reforming entity, so while Remain might be the name of the campaign, in fact, "remain" in the sense of "no change" may not be not an option. There will be some change either way.

However, a friend of my beloved "boiler-o-meter" (should that be "boiler-o-mater"?) made another interesting point. Her work takes her into close contact with the parliament, and she's familiar with how things work in Whitehall. Her opinion is that even if it is a "leave" vote, not much will change.

She reckons that there would be lots of fuss and flourish, but at the end of the day, there will be one massive political fudge that will result in hardly any change at all. She may well be right.

In the meantime, I will touch base with the "boiler-o-mater" this evening, and see which way the wind is blowing.

I strongly suspect that, rather like the boiler itself, it's complicated.

Watch this space...