Erstellt am: 12. 2. 2013 - 15:08 Uhr

Testing the international community's patience

Reality Check: North Korea's nuclear test, choosing the next Pope, US demographics and politics.

North Korea's Nuclear Test

The first was in 2006, the next in 2009 and now North Korea has carried out a third test of a nuclear device. At least, the regime in Pyongyang says it was a nuclear test, for the moment the rest of the world is waiting for conclusive evidence. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation in Vienna is calling it an “explosion-like event” which, according to the seismic data, was twice as big at the 2009 nuclear test in North Korea.

EPA/JEON HEON-KYUN

Activists in South Korea demonstrate after the North Korean nuclear test

To confirm that it was a nuclear explosion, the experts need evidence in the form of radioactive particles and gases, and it takes a while before they can be detected. Nevertheless, the international reaction has been immediate. Barely an hour after the first report of seismic activity in North Korea, South Korea called an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council and soon condemnations of North Korea’s actions were pouring in from around the globe.

For decades experts have tried to figure out what makes North Korea tick and how its behaviour should be interpreted. Is it rational or not? Is it a belligerent Stalinist regime intent on gaining the upper hand over its capitalist enemies, or is this completely isolated country where most of the population live in abject poverty just desperate and paranoid? Either way, no-one is happy about the idea of Pyongyang getting its hands on a nuclear weapon.

This latest test also has to be seen in the context of a North Korea under its new ruler, Kim Jong-un, who acceded to the leadership at the end of 2011. “People should be highly concerned” says Jasper Kim, founder and CEO of the Asia Pacific Global Research Group in the South Korean capital Seoul. Professor Kim points out that Kim Jong-un is only 29 years old and is at the head of a regime apparatus populated by officials and military officers from his father’s and grandfather’s generations. The young leader is likely to “overcompensate for his young age and lack of military experience by being super-hawkish”.

A lot of attention is now focussed on China, North Korea’s only major ally, because as Jasper Kim points out, the general consensus is that “if any state is going to have any sway over North Korea, it’s going to be China.” In recent weeks Chinese leaders have, behind the scenes, reportedly been trying to persuade Pyongyang not to go ahead with the nuclear test. The expert view is that China will have to start rethinking its position. For a rising power which is “trying to get legitimacy in the international community”, says Jasper Kim, it’s too costly to be seen as “supporting this outlier state”.

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