Erstellt am: 23. 10. 2012 - 15:03 Uhr

Jail sentences for not predicting earthquake

Reality Check: L'Aquila earthquake verdict, Internet terrorism, final US debate, Detroit, Jimmy Savile

The news that 6 scientists and 1 official have received prison sentences in Italy for not accurately predicting the severity of the L'Aquila earthquake came as a surprise to just about everyone. Holding scientists legally responsible for errors of judgment sets a quite mind boggling precedent.

I can't help remembering the unfortunate weather man with the BBC failed to predict the Great Storm of 1987 which killed 22 people and did well over 1.5 billion pounds worth of damage to England, Wales and northern France. Earlier that evening the British weather man, Michael Fish, had reassured viewers that there would be no hurricane, but said it would be "rather windy". I know the Brits are famous for understatement, but "rather windy" was hardly the term appropriate for the worst storm to hit the country in 350 years, with hurricane force winds, even if it was not strictly speaking a hurricane.

Mr Fish became the butt of all the jokes, but no one considered him personally responsible for the loss of life and damage.

25 years later, 6 seismologists failed to predict the L'Aquila earthquake, and they are facing jail. It seems a dangerous and bizarre precedent. If seismologists or meteorologists can be held personally responsible for errors in their predictions, it seems clear they will quickly become relucant to open their mouths and share their opinions, in case they are proved wrong. Let's say they predict and earthquake and it doesn't happen - are they then responsible for the costs of the evacuation of the people in the area?

Earthquakes, even more than the weather, are notoriously unpredictable, both in terms of when they will happen and their severity. Even more bizarrely, in the Italian case, it was not what the seismologists said that was incorrect, but rather how it was interpreted an conveyed by the official. Nevertheless, all 7 of them have been found guilty of multiple manslaughter.

Roger Musson of the British Geological Survey, explained to Joanna Bostock how this "failed prediction" came about.

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Questions are being raised about attempts to cover up his behaviour at the time, and through the shelving of a documentary featuring interviews with his victims.

Our London correspondent, Catherine Drew, tells Chris Cummins about the dashed reputation of the star, and the impact the scandal is having around the country.

FM4 Reality Check

Monday to Friday from 12.00 to 14.00, and after the show via Podcast or fm4.orf.at/realitycheck.