Erstellt am: 25. 7. 2012 - 15:47 Uhr

“Intervention may choose us”

Reality Check: Military intervention in Syria now much more likely, according to UK think tank report.

“Whether or not Assad falls, the question of military intervention will remain a live issue” writes Colonel Richard Kemp, who served in the British Army from 1977 to 2006, including a stint commanding British Forces in Afghanistan. He is also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a leading UK-based military think tank which has just published a briefing on the situation in Syria.

The game has changed

The report says “the Syrian crisis has taken a decisive new turn in the last week” and that “external intervention, in some form, is now significantly more likely”. In his contribution to the report, Richard Kemp outlines potential scenarios for intervention and complicating factors. The suggestion is that if or when Assad falls, the consequences in terms of spiralling violence potentially engulfing a much wider region will present the West with no choice but to take action.

In Kemp’s view “military planners have a responsibility to prepare for intervention” and there are several options. One of them is to provide covert support for rebel forces in the form of weapons and intelligence. This is something, says Kemp, which is already happening and due to which “the rebels have been able to make the progress they have done in the last few days and weeks”. Other options which should be under consideration are “imposing a no-fly zone on Syria, (or) carrying out punitive airstrikes against Syrian military forces that are attacking civilian targets.” Russia has continued to oppose international action against Syria but the crucial question now seems to be whether and how the Assad regime falls. There are concerns that a rapid collapse of the regime would lead to much more bloodshed, a potential game-changer when it comes to Russia’s stance and which might open the door to “some kind of Western assistance to stabilise the country”.

A proxy war?

Kemp’s report underlines the importance of “anticipating Russian action and counter action” in terms of whether and how Moscow continues to support Assad. He stresses the strategic importance to Iran of its partnership with Syria and he points out that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar also have “strategic objectives (which) would need to be factored into decision-making”. In light of this, is there potential for the collapse of the Assad regime to explode into a proxy war? Kemp says he does NOT predict this, but “the potential is there … each of those sides is looking to change the situation in a way that will suit itself. Now that could have the … product of a much wider conflict going in to countries such as Turkey, such as Lebanon and even dragging in Israel and it’s more than possible that Assad could decide to do something against Israel to garner support among other Arab countries".

Kemp is a man with 30 years of military experience in the Middle East, Afghanistan and the Balkans. He’s spoken to military officers and has no doubt that planning is taking place. Kemp describes the concerns of military planners as “absolutely enormous”. With the experience of, and lessons learned from, Afghanistan and Iraq, and within the current international financial and security climate, there “would be no appetite whatsoever for engagement” but with the caveat: “unless it became absolutely necessary”.

Unfortunately we weren't able to record the interview with Colonel Kemp in time to broadcast it in today's programme, but it can be heard here:

On today’s programme, we also spoke to international defence consultant, Charles Heyman:

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