Erstellt am: 2. 3. 2012 - 17:06 Uhr
Russia: on the brink of change?
For most modern-day elected leaders, anything over 10 years at the top is usually considered a very good run. Margaret Thatcher was prime minister of Britain for 12 years, Francois Mitterand was president of France for 14 years, and Helmut Kohl is right up at the top with 16 years as Chancellor of Germany.
Fancy footwork around the constitution
Ria Novosti/Alexey Nikolsky
However, after a careful bit of fancy footwork around the constitution, Vladimir Putin looks set to challenge Kohl's record. Some leaders have their times at the top curtailed by the rules about maximum tenure - but this posed no obstacle to Putin, who, in effect, just changed his title from President to Prime Minister. Many people would say it was only the title that changed, and actually he has continued to do the job of President for the last 4 years.
If, or rather when, Putin wins Sunday's presidential election, he will then be in line for another 4 years - this time as the official president - taking him up to 16 years at the helm in Russia.
Democracy vs. Security
Most analysts say that Russian society is less free under Putin than it was under his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin. Putin is often accused of being autocratic, and allegations of fraud surrounding the parliamentary elections last autumn that saw Putin's United Russia party returned to power, set of protests unprecedented in recent Russian history.
So why do Russians keep on electing him? Well, stability is a lot of the story. One thing Putin has delivered is a degree of economic stability which Russians has not enjoyed since the end of the Soviet Union. For many Russians stability, with food in the shops and regular pay cheques, is more important than the notion of democracy.
How long can he last?
So how long can Putin stay at the top? He looks like a man who would like to start challenging the African dictators for length of leadership, and there are rumours he has his sights set on staying in power until 2024. But there are also signs that "Putin Power" is wearing thin. The anti-Putin protests, while they may not have been enough to unseat him, are certainly sending him a clear message: change, or you'll be changed. While there's no sign of any imminent changes in Putin's style of government, if he doesn't make a concerted effort to address the concerns of the protesters, this term could well be his last.
"Russia: on the brink of change?"
can be heard on Reality Check at 12 noon on Saturday, March 3rd, and after the show via Podcast or fm4.orf.at/realitycheck.