Erstellt am: 7. 2. 2012 - 15:07 Uhr

Who'll call the bluff?

Reality Check: Israel-Iran, Arigona, 50 years US embargo on Cuba, Falkland Islands renewed tension, The Data Thief.

It's been talked about for years, but it's never quite been taken seriously. Israel would very probably like to attack Iran, but it just wouldn't.... or would it? The rhetoric has reached new heights in the last few days as the US, at least, seems to be taking the treats coming out of Jerusalem as more than just idle.

As usual, it's all about Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions, at least officially. Israel's Defence Minister, Ehud Barak, said "There is no argument about the intolerable danger a nuclear Iran (would pose) to the future of the Middle East, the security of Israel and to the economic and security stability of the entire world" and stressed that there is a "wide global understanding" that military action might be needed.

But what would an Israeli strike against Iran really mean? Analyst Paul Rogers says it could be completely counter-productive.

Firstly, if one thing could unite all the different factions in Iran, it's a military strike by Israel. Any opposition to Mahmoud Ahmedinejad would almost certainly melt on the spot, and he would find himself not only the man of the moment at home, but probably also the recipient of support from other Islamic states in the region.

Secondly, such a strike could stretch US-Israel relations to breaking point. The last thing Barack Obama wants right now is for the US to get embroiled in another Middle East conflict. While many Republicans would love to have Israel take a pop at Iran, and it would certainly work against Obama come the November elections, even the Republicans can see that the wider implications would be bad news for everyone.

So will Israel really attack Iran's nuclear facilites? It may look a little likelier than it has in the past, but there is a great deal at stake. Whether Iran really does have a secret nuclear weapons programme or not, it's very conscious of its position in the region, and is probably very happy for everyone to think it does.

The big question is, who is bluffing, who is double bluffing, who'll up the stakes next, and who will eventually put their cards on the table in the giant poker game that is the Middle East.

Arigona Zogaj - an example for the future?

The young Kosovar woman at the centre of the heated deportation debate has been allowed to stay in Austria for another two years.Volkshilfe Österreich president and EU parliamentarian, Josef Weidenholzer, tells Riem Higazi why the the current state of the case of Arigona Zogaj sets an example that the authorities would be wise to follow.

Cuba 50 years after its isolation from the USA.

In 1962 the United States implemented what it called its embargo on trade with Cuba. Cuba in turn reacted to what it called "the blockade" from the United States. 50 years later, things have changed, but not all that much. Cuba expert Dr Simon Reid-Henry explains to Chris Cummins how each side sees the other in this long running feud.

Falkland Islands tensions

You say Falklands, they say Malvinas - the centuries old dispute between Britain and Argentina over a group of small islands in the South Atlantic is surfacing again.

The Falklands comprise almost 800 islands, are inhabited by just over 3.000 people, a large number of sheep and quite a few penguins - but it remains a hotly contested territory and the scene of one of the 20th century's most significant military conflicts.

Nigel West, author of The Secret War for the Falklands told Steve Crilley why the issue if hitting the headlines once again.

Data Thief: Heinrich Kieber

You may remember the "Liechtenstein Tax Affair". An employee of Liechtenstein's biggest bank stole data on thousands of the bank's customers, including a large number of tax evaders. He became the hero of the banking sector, and the enemy of the elite whose secrets he sold.

That employee was Heinrich Kieber, and his story is told in a book by journalist Sigvard Wohlwend. Sigvard told Joanna Bostock about the man who became known as "The Data Thief".

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