Erstellt am: 23. 1. 2012 - 16:14 Uhr

Iran: it's all about recognition

Reality Check: Oil embargo against Iran, Republican race, Croatia's land mines, Greece's tax evaders, the British Buddhist monk.

The seemingly never ending, and never really progressing, saga over Iran's nuclear ambitions took another turn today. The EU has upped the stakes by placing an embargo on imports of oil. The EU takes around 20% of Iran's oil, so while it might be an economic blow, it hardly seems to be something likely to bring the Iranians to the table to dicusss their nuclear power plans.

However, this move from the EU goes together with a similar embargo implemented by the USA at the end of December - and together, that adds up to a lot of oil. If other countries join in, Iran could really start to feel the pinch.

So, how likely is it that other countries will come on board? Regional analyst, Michael Lüders, says that although China is making noises about joining a boycott, they are far more likely to step into the gap, buying up the oil not going to Europe and the US, and increasing their trading power and influence in Iran. In this respect, the whole exercise could backfire on the US and EU.

Since 2006, the UN Security Council has passed 7 resolutions on Iran, and I defy anyone not directly involved in the process to have kept track of all the threats, sanctions, threats of sanctions, negotiations, meetings and reports there have been. None of it seems to have had any effect - so why should oil embargos be any different?

Michael Lüders says they probably won't be. Iranians, he says, are proud, and do not respond to threats. Unfortunately, threats seem to be the only way the west knows how to work. He says that for Iran, it's not really about nuclear resources, but rather about recognition from the International Community, and being seen as a major player in the region. That's something that neither the west, nor most of Iran's neighbours in the region, wants to see.

It looks as though the oil embargo will be, like so many gestures before - just that, no more than a gesture - and any solution is still a long way off.

Republican race opens up

Newt Gingrich scored an unexpected large win over the former front-runner, Mitt Romney, in South Carolina on Saturday. Now the race, which seemed to be Romney's for the taking, is wide open again. Simon Marks looks at the latest developments, and how things may develop as the candidates head to Florida.

Croatia and the EU

Croatia's referendum on EU membership was marred by a low turnout of only 44%, but as 66% were in favour, the membership will go ahead. It's hoped EU membership will provide vital funds for landmine clearance, which is still a major problem in parts of Croatia.

Greece's tax evaders

The Greek government has published a list of Greek tax evaders it wants brought to justice. The list, which is published on the Internet, reveals names of people whose total tax debts almost equal the value of the bonds the government has to repay in March. Helena Smith reports from Athens.

The Brit who became a Buddhist monk

Nik Martin profiles Ajahn Brahm who gave up a promising career in Britain to become a Buddhist monk and comedian, and to help bring eastern and western beliefs and cultures together from his base in Australia.

FM4 Reality Check

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