Erstellt am: 24. 8. 2011 - 14:28 Uhr

Libya - a conflict like no other

Reality Check: The situation on the streets in Tripoli and the next steps for finding Gaddafi

In every new conflict that arises, we all seem to be drawn to making comparisons – and usually we find them, even if they are only tenuous. The US led invasion of Afghanistan drew frequent comparison with the Soviet invasion nearly 25 years earlier, the invasion of Iraq was regularly compared to Vietnam, the Jasmine revolution in Tunisia was compared to the orange, cedar, velvet and other revolutions, and when it came to Egypt, the immediate comparison was with Tunisia. Libya, however, is different. Every expert you ask “is this like….?” the answer is an emphatic “NO!”

Libya, it seems, defies comparison – it is a country like no other, which has been under a dictatorship like no other. Certainly, the revolution has taken longer than in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt, and unlike his overthrown colleagues, it seems highly unlikely that Gaddafi with either publically flee or step down. Even though his compound in Tripoli has been overrun by rebels, there is still no sign of Gaddafi himself, leading to speculation that not only is he in hiding, but that he could be in hiding for a long time to come. Our regional analyst, Rime Allaf of Chatham House, says that there is unfortunately no shortage of places for him to hide, but that this may not be that important in the end. She says the crucial thing is that he is seen to be out of power, so the country can move on. As soon as that happens and the National Transitional Council takes over, which could be any day now, things could move quickly towards stability and a better life for everyone.

Tough times for Tripoli residents

Although the transition could now be relatively fast, there is no question that the conditions for people in Tripoli at the moment are less than comfortable. Most shops are shut, and many people are short of drinking food and water. Electricity supplies are frequently interrupted, and household water is also cut off in some areas of the city. Hospitals are understaffed, and lacking in both the supplies and the expertise to deal with the war wounded, and while agencies such as Doctors without Borders and the International Committee of the Red Cross are doing their best to help, the city is too large and has too many hospitals for everyone to get the assistance they need. This in turn means that people needing regular care, such as diabetics and cardiac patients, are unable to receive their treatments, and then become emergency cases. Although some residents feel the city is more secure than it has been for a while and that things are improving, law, order and basic services need to be restored very quickly or, despite all the optimism, I fear we could still see the civil unrest everyone hopes to avoid.

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