Erstellt am: 22. 8. 2011 - 18:33 Uhr

Gaddafi's last stand?

Reality Check: After 42 years is this the end for Gaddafi?

Events in Libya are moving very quickly

Towards the end of last week we were getting messages out of Libya that the rebels were advancing towards the capital. We had spoken about the impending battle for Tripoli since Libya began to implode almost 5 months ago. One of our reporters, Tony Chen, was preparing to fly into Libya at the weekend; he’s now in Benghazi and making his way across the country. In the last 24 hours, there has been a definite shift in the power base of Libya, and analyst Shashank Joshi says the last battle appears to be imminent. The question now is, will the regime collapse quickly enough for there to be a swift end to the battles, or will there be a long and drawn out bloody end to Gaddafi’s grip on power.

The comparison with Iraq

Wind back to April 2003. You may remember the scenes of jubilation in Baghdad, the shoes thrown at Saddam’s statue. Shorty afterwards George W. Bush stood aloft on the battle-cruiser as the “mission accomplished” sign unfolded behind him. Then came the mayhem and carnage that defined the Iraq conflict for the next 5 years or more; but Middle East analyst Rime Allaf told me today that Libya is very different from Iraq. First of all there is no invasion force, no thousands of foreign ground-troops marching across the country heading towards the capital. So long as NATO keeps to its mandate, which was to enforce a no-fly zone in order to protect Libyan civilians, then the situation doesn’t produce the same explosive feel of an occupier planning to set roots down in an Arab country.

Libya, like Iraq, was governed by fear, but there don’t appear to be the same underlying divisions among the Libyans that there were between Iraqis. Iraq has the Kurds in the North (in what was effectively an autonomous zone), the marsh Arabs of the south and south-east (who were displaced during past uprisings against Saddam) and a deep divide between Shia and Sunni muslims. Add to that a complex mix of armed militias, and by 2006 it was estimated that there were 40,000 fighters in Iraq who had one major goal, that of attacking US forces. In Libya, although there are many tribes and tribal loyalties there are no major or traditional difficulties between the geographical regions.

The End Game?

After 42 years, Muammar Gaddafi has been Africa’s, and the Arab world’s longest-ruling leader. He’s also been one of the world’s most erratic statesmen. He’s been very difficult to predict since he appears to rule on his own whims. Are we seeing the end game? Is seems so, but let’s hope that this will be a relatively peaceful change-over to a new transitional power, that the fighting will end soon, and those that have held Libya hostage for the last 4 decades will face justice at the international criminal court for war crimes in the Hague.

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