Erstellt am: 19. 8. 2011 - 15:08 Uhr

A bloody Friday in Kabul

Reality Check: Suicide attack in Kabul and tragedy at the Pukkelpop festival in Belgium

It seems lately that a typical Friday across the Arab world is pock-marked with unrest, crackdowns and explosions. Today, it's South Asia that is making the headlines, with major attacks on a mosque in Pakistan and on the British Council building in the Afghan capital, Kabul.

Some are wondering whether this will be an increasing trend as soon as US forces begin to pull out of the country. The drawdown is set to commence on January 1st next year. Let’s face it this timetable has very little to do with security concerns for the Afghan people and is more about Obama’s hopes of winning a second term as president. Come next November, his message to the American people has to be: after 10 years, I brought our troops home.

On today's Reality Check, I talked to regional analyst Paul Rogers about the significance of this morning's attack in Kabul, and what it could mean for the future.

I anticipate the following will happen in the coming period ahead. The situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan will get more violent, President Obama will continue with his drawdown policy and his opponents will go on the offensive accusing him of abandoning the War on Terror in South Asia.
In fact Senator John McCain hinted at this recently by musing: "I wonder what Ronald Reagan would be saying today?" Ronald Reagan is eulogized for his somewhat hawkish foreign policy, but as republicans start to go misty eyed for the man they credit with bringing about the tearing down of the Berlin Wall, they should remember that Reagan wasn’t always about confrontation. He could be pragmatic too.

Take another hotspot in recent history, Lebanon. In 1983, over 240 American soldiers were killed in Beirut. Confronted with coffins coming home draped in the American flag, Reagan woke up to the fact that he was placing US service personnel in the middle of a civil war. It was a war without many goals and the enemy could melt away into the dark alleys of Beirut only to re-emerge and cause carnage at any time. Maybe militant groups could be defeated eventually but what would be the cost to American lives?

Back at the Pentagon, generals were warning President Reagan of the serious consequences if he withdrew at such a critical moment; he was told this would make America look vulnerable, that you could never get the hardliners to make peace in Lebanon, and furthermore the Soviets would take great comfort in the weakness of Washington.

So did Reagan order a surge in troop numbers? No, he cut his losses and just walked away. Lebanon was left to fend for itself and the country was rocked by unrest for a period of years. But the militias eventually became weaker without much outside pressure from the US. Meanwhile the Soviet Union was disbanded in 1991.

By the way, Beirut was named the top place to visit in 2009 by the New York Times. And in the same year it was also listed as one of the ten liveliest cities in the world by the Lonely Planet.

Also on Reality Check:

Tragedy at Pukkelpop Festival

Cornelia Primosch reports on the deadly storm that claimed the lives of 5 young festival goers and left dozens others injured.

FM4 Reality Check

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