Erstellt am: 22. 3. 2011 - 15:06 Uhr

Libya: a lose-lose situation?

Analyst and commentator Shashank Joshi says everything points to an almost inevitable stalemate in Libya.

Shashank Joshi teaches at both Harvard and Cambridge, and is an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Security studies, military affairs and the Middle East are among his areas of special expertise, so he should know what he's talking about when it comes to the current situation in Libya. His analysis is depressing, to say the least. In a nutshell, he cannot envisage any sort of quick or happy outcome.

The "mad dog" will be hard to displace

Quite apart from the intrinsic difficulties of trying to contain or even oust the man who Ronald Reagan called the "mad dog of the Middle East", Shashank points to the already crumbling military coalition. While the Arab League had called on the United Nations to implement a no-fly zone, their Secretary General, Amr Moussa, was quick to criticize from the very beginning of the mission, saying the military were going beyond their mandate of protecting civilians. Shashank says this change of position has done a great deal of damage to the coalition and the international perception of their role and aims in the region.

US-Arab tension

Shashank Joshi also points to the tensions between the United States and other Arab nations who are facing their own domestic problems. The US habit of supporting anti-government protests is not winning them any popularity with the leaders of the troubled Middle Eastern countries who may not be fans of Colonel Gaddafi, but have enough on their hands trying to hang on to power themselves.

Another Saddam?

Perhaps most worrying is Joshi’s analysis of the medium to
long term future. He says he sees little realistic prospect of Gaddafi being toppled any time soon, so the most likely scenario is that he will hang on in isolation, rather like Saddam Hussein in Iraq, or Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia. That will be bad news for the Libyans and a protracted and probably expensive stale-mate for the West. "Mad dog" or smart player, Shashank says Gaddafi has enough support around him to hold on to power for quite a long time.

Hear the whole interview between Steve Crilley and Shashank Joshi here.